Every two weeks, I share my thoughts about investing, career transitions, meaningful work, parenting, living intentionally, and other topics that engage me. I'm in my fifties and still trying to figure stuff out.
Welcome. π Every two weeks, I share my writing on investing, career transitions, meaningful work, parenting, living intentionally, and other topics that engage me. I'm still trying to figure stuff out. Was this newsletter forwarded to you? See past articles and subscribe here. Beyond ReturnsMy colleague Ken will retire in two weeks. When he does, I'll become the primary point of contact for more than 150 clients at Bath Saving Trust Company who have relied on Ken's guidance and counsel for more than 12 years. I'm excited for this opportunity, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't feeling the weight of it. Taking over relationships built over many years is daunting. I've wondered if clients will trust my judgment the way they trusted Ken's, especially during this volatile market. Fortunately, Ken has prepared me well. Since I started in December, Ken has shared as much client history and context as possible. He's trained me on BSTC's processes. It also helps knowing I have the full support of my new colleagues. Theyβre all eager to help. Nobody works on commission. But there's another, more interesting reason for my confidence. Despite market volatility and relentless, alarming headlines, our clients seem remarkably at ease. The flood of anxious calls I expected hasn't materialized. At first, I found this puzzling. Why aren't they worried? But that's not it at all. Sitting in meetings with Ken, listening to their conversations, I've realized something profound. These clients aren't calling in panic because they've done something harder than making money β they've built genuine trust. Not only in their portfolios, but also in a relationship that transcends market movements. That trust gives them the ability to stay focused while others react. One of the most valuable things an advisor can offer is protection from a poorly timed decision made in the heat of the moment. Sure, we have the technical foundation right. The asset allocation matches each client's risk tolerance and needs. The tools are straightforward β high-yielding money markets, quality bonds, and either individual stocks or low-cost funds. Nothing revolutionary. But how we implement these exposures matters deeply. When markets get volatile, clients find comfort in understanding what they own and why they own it. Simple, transparent strategies help them see through the noise of financial media. Over my career, I've worked on teams focused on deep value, core, GARP, and growth strategies. I've invested across U.S., international, and global equities in both public and private markets. I've seen investors succeed with fast trades and long holds. There are many ways to invest well. What matters most is clarity in the strategy and discipline in following it. I've seen brilliant investors succeed with vastly different approaches. But watching Ken these past months has taught me something I hadn't fully appreciated before: the best strategy isn't necessarily the most sophisticated or even the one with the highest expected returns; it's the one your client can stick with through market storms. Our approach at BSTC might seem boring. We use high-quality blue chips and household names that clients recognize. This means we underperformed during market excesses, like when the Magnificent 7 ran hard last year. I'm learning that clients don't call constantly, worried about relative performance to an index. They sleep well knowing they own businesses they understand, that generate reliable cash flows, and that they can hold through turbulent times. But here's what has affected me most deeply: In Ken's final meetings, I've witnessed something remarkable. Clients don't just thank him. They bring handcrafted gifts, share deeply personal stories, and sometimes shed tears as they say goodbye. I realized I wasn't just inheriting investment accounts but intimate relationships built through market crashes, personal tragedies, and family celebrations. I know I'll need to earn each client's trust individually. That will take time. But trust isn't just built on investment performance. It's built in small moments: remembering a grandchild's name, calling during difficult times, explaining complex ideas simply, and showing up consistently. The structure of our organization helps too. Being part of a community bank with no shareholders or commissions removes conflicts. But structure alone doesn't create the kind of relationship I've witnessed between Ken and his clients. As I prepare to take the helm, I've realized the most valuable lesson isn't about investment strategy. It's about cultivating relationships where clients trust you enough to sleep well during market storms. The math of asset allocation is just the beginning. The art of the process requires building trust that runs deeper than optimizing the impact of market volatility. When clients understand what they own and why, and when they trust the person guiding them, they can weather any market uncertainty. I've been so focused on mastering the technical aspects of this role that I nearly missed the most important lesson Ken has to teach. Working with individual investors isn't just about managing money; it's about helping people navigate uncertainty with confidence. If they can sleep well despite market turmoil, I will have done my job well. Other StuffHow Evolving Supply & Demand Dynamics Are Impacting Multifamily Investments Useful update on multifamily dynamics as we head into Q2. After several challenging years of higher operating and financing costs combined with massive supply additions limiting rent growth, Trepp sees light at the end of the tunnel. Completions and new starts are slowing, and debt financing conditions are normalizing. βRead the article (4 mins) Nobody Knows (Yet Again) Oaktree's Howard Marks, who has written extensively about investing in times of uncertainty, frames the current investment environment in his typically thoughtful and balanced way. Thanks to FA for flagging this one, which silently lay unread in my inbox. "One of the things I insist on is that even for someone who deals with the future via forecasts, a forecast isnβt enough. In addition to a forecast, you also need a good sense for the probability your forecast is correct, since not all forecasts are created equal. In this case, under these circumstances, it must be accepted that forecasts are even less likely to prove correct than usual."
βRead the essay (20 mins) The End of US Exceptionalism? Global Market Shifts & Investment Opportunities - EP.440 Ted Seides moderates an insightful roundtable of three excellent macro strategists: James Aitken of Aitken Advisors, Marko Papic of BCA Research, and Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research. Sure, you can take the single-point predictions with a grain of salt - who knows (see above). But it's interesting to hear their frameworks and areas where they agree/disagree. The case for US assets underperforming seems especially compelling, but maybe that's quickly becoming a consensus view. π€· βListen to the podcast (1 hour) And a Farewell Photo...β |
Every two weeks, I share my thoughts about investing, career transitions, meaningful work, parenting, living intentionally, and other topics that engage me. I'm in my fifties and still trying to figure stuff out.